AK Is it Worth It?

[CaliNaughti]

Im beginning to think that AK is just a beautiful monster hand, looks great, so beautiful..especially when suited! But his great Monster Hand can be folded right?

What if you have 12K chips and someone goes all in in front of you with 6K chips..your at a table with 5 left..3 get paid..do you call it? Or fold it because they may have AA or 22 and either way you lose half your stack.

Has anyone ever sat at a table and observed someone going all in with AK without seeing the flop and losing? I saw this happen more often than ever on PS in the last 3 days than ever before. AK vs AA or AK vs A9 and 9 come up on flop...AK vs 22...a PP will win how many times? Someone know the math on this?

[Dinero2005]

Hey Cali! I stumbled on this site tonight, saw your name and of course had to stop...

As far as Big Slick goes I think it's all situational. In your example with 5 left and 3 get paid my first question is, what are the blinds? If your opponent has 10 BB or less I'd say it's an easy call. When it's late in the tournament and your opponent gets short stacked they're more likely to push with any A or any PP. Against a PP you're almost 50/50 (aside from KK & AA of course). AA/KK is less likely because by them pushing there's a good chance they want a fold which wouldn't be the case with those two.

More than 10 BB then it's a tough call. Best case you're ahead of something like A9 but you give them all 5 cards to get lucky. Good chance you're against something like QQ/JJ that's looking to push out As and Ks and why take a coin flip for half your chips?

Pushing with them is a different story though IMHO. At that point you can take advantage of some fold equity.

AKs isn't the 5th best starting hand in Holdem for no reason.

[CaliNaughti]

Hi Dinero, I am glad you found the site here and look forward to playing poker with you again. Here is
the HH of the game I was talking about. Like I said before I believe sometimes you have to fold a monster hand to get a head.

I dont do it often but sometimes you just know when your going to be beat. Any PP would have beat me if that A or K didnt show up. I ended up HU against MM2 and took 2nd.

He is a very good player, we have been heads up a few times together and I alwys come in 2nd! One of these days!! lol Anyway..fokding this hand I believe is the key factor in my making it to HU. Your thoughts?
Cali

PokerStars Game #21279775241: Tournament #114106066, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2008/10/17 20:22:22 ET
Table '114106066 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (11680 in chips)
Seat 6: Eucalypta (5440 in chips)
Seat 7: GoldThumb (3395 in chips)
Seat 8: MrMorgan2 (6170 in chips)
Seat 9: neilhawk (6315 in chips)
CalifNaughti: posts the ante 50
Eucalypta: posts the ante 50
GoldThumb: posts the ante 50
MrMorgan2: posts the ante 50
neilhawk: posts the ante 50
Eucalypta: posts small blind 300
GoldThumb: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CalifNaughti [Ac Ks]
MrMorgan2: raises 5520 to 6120 and is all-in
neilhawk: folds
CalifNaughti: folds
Eucalypta: folds
GoldThumb: folds
Uncalled bet (5520) returned to MrMorgan2
CalifNaughti said, "oh godddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd"
MrMorgan2 collected 1750 from pot
MrMorgan2: doesn't show hand
CalifNaughti said, "i folded AK"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1750 | Rake 0
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Eucalypta (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: GoldThumb (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: MrMorgan2 collected (1750)
Seat 9: neilhawk folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[WolffMann]

lol lost to poket 9's....i called his all in for 1/2 my stack...and i was BB. one of the toughest hands to play. seems like all the stars have to be in alignment for it to actually be a winner. either slow play and hit the flop...or bet 4x's blind pre. Or fold em every time....wont lose then

[Dinero2005]

I think you were probably ahead there Cali. At worst a coin flip. Reads at the table make a big difference here (has he pushed like this before?) (how did he play big hands previously?). The open push with 10 BBs means he's probably weak. I'd be more concerned if he min raised or bet 3x. STRONG MEANS WEAK, WEAK MEANS STRONG. There's exception's to that rule of course but you can look at it this way.

50% he has Ax-KJ (with you having an A that might be a little high) 71.5% to win
50% he as PP (QQ-22) 43.3% to win
AKo = 57.4% favorite

Plug that same range into PokerStove without the 50/50 between PP and Ax and you end up a 62.9% favorite. You're probably better than that since A2,A3, 22, 33 and rags like that are probably unlikely.

You'd certainly like better odds than that but I'm sure that late in the tournament to get heads up you probably won at least one coin flip along the way anyway.

That being said you didn't have anything invested other than the ante so you didn't lose anything. You had a strong chip lead so no reason to gamble even though you were slightly ahead. In the end, even though you were ahead folding was probably the right move. Personally I think I'd have called because that late in the tournament that might be the best cards you'll see for awhile.

[CaliNaughti]

Thanks Dinero, I understand what your saying and everything, there has been some what of a history between MM2 and I and I have notes on him (as well as several other players I play regularly). With that being said, and having lost 2 times already in this tourny with AK to small PP's as 22 and 33 I didnt want to take any risks, even if I was ahead..to lose again and then be sitting at 5K along with everyone else.

It was a hard hand to fold, no doubt, as I consider AK to be a monster hand. Its the kind of monster hand though that I would like to see a flop with. Its beautiful and strong to look at but means nothing when it doesnt hit and they have.

I ended up losing this tourny in a battle to the finish with AK to his small PP again. MM2 and I have battled like this a few times.LOL

[CaliNaughti]

I was 2nd in chips and look what happened..I honestly should have known that he would have a small PP. This is what I am talking about. I dont know why he wouldnt think I was on a larger PP or even hit trips? can someone please explain to me? Im not mad or anything I just want to learn.
Thank you
Cali

PokerStars Game #21992246095: Tournament #120105333, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/11/12 22:13:14 ET
Table '120105333 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: luckylb7777 (1974 in chips)
Seat 2: CRI321 (1800 in chips)
Seat 3: 7-2aintbad (2365 in chips)
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (3797 in chips)
Seat 7: rocklandbb (5200 in chips)
Seat 8: mazie119 (2742 in chips)
Seat 9: Angel4Now (1120 in chips)
rocklandbb: posts small blind 75
mazie119: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CalifNaughti [Ah Ks]
Angel4Now: folds
luckylb7777: folds
mazie119 said, "vn"
CRI321: folds
luckylb7777 said, "ty"
7-2aintbad: folds
CalifNaughti: raises 450 to 600
CalifNaughti said, "very nice hand"
rocklandbb: raises 1350 to 1950
luckylb7777 said, "ty"
mazie119: folds
CalifNaughti: calls 1350
*** FLOP *** [8c Jh 7h]
rocklandbb: checks
CalifNaughti: checks
*** TURN *** [8c Jh 7h] [4c]
rocklandbb: bets 1200
CalifNaughti: raises 647 to 1847 and is all-in
rocklandbb: calls 647
*** RIVER *** [8c Jh 7h 4c] [8h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
rocklandbb: shows [2h 2s] (two pair, Eights and Deuces)
CalifNaughti: shows [Ah Ks] (a pair of Eights)
rocklandbb collected 7744 from pot
rocklandbb said, "sorry cali"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7744 | Rake 0
Board [8c Jh 7h 4c 8h]
Seat 1: luckylb7777 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: CRI321 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: 7-2aintbad folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (button) showed [Ah Ks] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 7: rocklandbb (small blind) showed [2h 2s] and won (7744) with two pair, Eights and Deuces
Seat 8: mazie119 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Angel4Now folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[Rocketplayer]

Your betting pattern screamed AK or AQ

I knew I was ahead on turn and thought you'd fold, not go all-in

[Sick Fish]

I'm sure that you've heard it before...

AK = Anna Kournikova. Looks great, but never wins. :(


With 5 left and 3 getting paid I wouldn't risk half my stack with AK. You still have plenty of time to put yourself in a better position to make the top 3.

[CaliNaughti]

I'm sure that you've heard it before...

AK = Anna Kournikova. Looks great, but never wins. :(


With 5 left and 3 getting paid I wouldn't risk half my stack with AK. You still have plenty of time to put yourself in a better position to make the top 3.


Hey Sickfish,
This is the hand were talking about now.. another AK. There were more left than 5.
Id love your response to this.
Thank you
Cali



PokerStars Game #21992246095: Tournament #120105333, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/11/12 22:13:14 ET
Table '120105333 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: luckylb7777 (1974 in chips)
Seat 2: CRI321 (1800 in chips)
Seat 3: 7-2aintbad (2365 in chips)
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (3797 in chips)
Seat 7: rocklandbb (5200 in chips)
Seat 8: mazie119 (2742 in chips)
Seat 9: Angel4Now (1120 in chips)
rocklandbb: posts small blind 75
mazie119: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CalifNaughti [Ah Ks]
Angel4Now: folds
luckylb7777: folds
mazie119 said, "vn"
CRI321: folds
luckylb7777 said, "ty"
7-2aintbad: folds
CalifNaughti: raises 450 to 600
CalifNaughti said, "very nice hand"
rocklandbb: raises 1350 to 1950
luckylb7777 said, "ty"
mazie119: folds
CalifNaughti: calls 1350
*** FLOP *** [8c Jh 7h]
rocklandbb: checks
CalifNaughti: checks
*** TURN *** [8c Jh 7h] [4c]
rocklandbb: bets 1200
CalifNaughti: raises 647 to 1847 and is all-in
rocklandbb: calls 647
*** RIVER *** [8c Jh 7h 4c] [8h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
rocklandbb: shows [2h 2s] (two pair, Eights and Deuces)
CalifNaughti: shows [Ah Ks] (a pair of Eights)
rocklandbb collected 7744 from pot
rocklandbb said, "sorry cali"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7744 | Rake 0
Board [8c Jh 7h 4c 8h]
Seat 1: luckylb7777 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: CRI321 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: 7-2aintbad folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (button) showed [Ah Ks] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 7: rocklandbb (small blind) showed [2h 2s] and won (7744) with two pair, Eights and Deuces
Seat 8: mazie119 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Angel4Now folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[Sick Fish]

I would have folded on rock's re-raise. Against an unknown player I might have called depending on his/her previous play during the game, but even though I haven't played against rock very much I know that he's a good player. He's probably not going to push a third of his stack unless he has a PP.

If by chance I had called the re-raise pre-flop I definitely would have folded to his 1200 after the turn.

[Kat]

A wise man once say (TJ Cloutier) if you play AK and don't flop anything, get off it. On the turn here Cali, your raise is basically a call cos ur opponent aint going anywhere. And calling w/ ocs is generally incorrect.

[desperad0oo7]

hey cali, generally speaking you should not be folding AK pre. But as mentioned above, it's really situational and mostly depends on stack sizes. if you have let's say +40bb and you are chip leader and have everyone covered by a big margin excpet for one who has let's say 38. if UTG raised and that guy shoves 38bb in, then yes, you might fold AK there. having said that, calling wouldn't be too horrible.

as for the situation you describe above, you have to get it in with AK. you should be aiming for top spot and you are not the largest stack. You won't get better chances. if the money is so important that you wouldn't want to risk it with AK then you should be playing lower limits.

My 2c

[desperad0oo7]

A wise man once say (TJ Cloutier) if you play AK and don't flop anything, get off it. On the turn here Cali, your raise is basically a call cos ur opponent aint going anywhere. And calling w/ ocs is generally incorrect.

that is probably one of the worst advice ever given in a poker book. TJ is not wise btw and he has no clue to how proper mathematical poker works.

[desperad0oo7]

Hi Dinero, I am glad you found the site here and look forward to playing poker with you again. Here is
the HH of the game I was talking about. Like I said before I believe sometimes you have to fold a monster hand to get a head.

I dont do it often but sometimes you just know when your going to be beat. Any PP would have beat me if that A or K didnt show up. I ended up HU against MM2 and took 2nd.

He is a very good player, we have been heads up a few times together and I alwys come in 2nd! One of these days!! lol Anyway..fokding this hand I believe is the key factor in my making it to HU. Your thoughts?
Cali

PokerStars Game #21279775241: Tournament #114106066, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2008/10/17 20:22:22 ET
Table '114106066 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (11680 in chips)
Seat 6: Eucalypta (5440 in chips)
Seat 7: GoldThumb (3395 in chips)
Seat 8: MrMorgan2 (6170 in chips)
Seat 9: neilhawk (6315 in chips)
CalifNaughti: posts the ante 50
Eucalypta: posts the ante 50
GoldThumb: posts the ante 50
MrMorgan2: posts the ante 50
neilhawk: posts the ante 50
Eucalypta: posts small blind 300
GoldThumb: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CalifNaughti [Ac Ks]
MrMorgan2: raises 5520 to 6120 and is all-in
neilhawk: folds
CalifNaughti: folds
Eucalypta: folds
GoldThumb: folds
Uncalled bet (5520) returned to MrMorgan2
CalifNaughti said, "oh godddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd"
MrMorgan2 collected 1750 from pot
MrMorgan2: doesn't show hand
CalifNaughti said, "i folded AK"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1750 | Rake 0
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Eucalypta (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: GoldThumb (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: MrMorgan2 collected (1750)
Seat 9: neilhawk folded before Flop (didn't bet)

no no no. don't ever fold here. he is down to 10bb. he should be shoving any ace and pp and any broadway here. you are crushing his range. sure, you are a flip against a pocket pair, but the money that's already in there will cover for the small edge he has. then you are way ahead of all his aces and kings. this is really a dream spot for you.

also, never tell the table you just made a big laydown. unless you want everyone to start bluffing you

[desperad0oo7]

I was 2nd in chips and look what happened..I honestly should have known that he would have a small PP. This is what I am talking about. I dont know why he wouldnt think I was on a larger PP or even hit trips? can someone please explain to me? Im not mad or anything I just want to learn.
Thank you
Cali

PokerStars Game #21992246095: Tournament #120105333, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/11/12 22:13:14 ET
Table '120105333 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: luckylb7777 (1974 in chips)
Seat 2: CRI321 (1800 in chips)
Seat 3: 7-2aintbad (2365 in chips)
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (3797 in chips)
Seat 7: rocklandbb (5200 in chips)
Seat 8: mazie119 (2742 in chips)
Seat 9: Angel4Now (1120 in chips)
rocklandbb: posts small blind 75
mazie119: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CalifNaughti [Ah Ks]
Angel4Now: folds
luckylb7777: folds
mazie119 said, "vn"
CRI321: folds
luckylb7777 said, "ty"
7-2aintbad: folds
CalifNaughti: raises 450 to 600
CalifNaughti said, "very nice hand"
rocklandbb: raises 1350 to 1950
luckylb7777 said, "ty"
mazie119: folds
CalifNaughti: calls 1350
*** FLOP *** [8c Jh 7h]
rocklandbb: checks
CalifNaughti: checks
*** TURN *** [8c Jh 7h] [4c]
rocklandbb: bets 1200
CalifNaughti: raises 647 to 1847 and is all-in
rocklandbb: calls 647
*** RIVER *** [8c Jh 7h 4c] [8h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
rocklandbb: shows [2h 2s] (two pair, Eights and Deuces)
CalifNaughti: shows [Ah Ks] (a pair of Eights)
rocklandbb collected 7744 from pot
rocklandbb said, "sorry cali"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7744 | Rake 0
Board [8c Jh 7h 4c 8h]
Seat 1: luckylb7777 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: CRI321 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: 7-2aintbad folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (button) showed [Ah Ks] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 7: rocklandbb (small blind) showed [2h 2s] and won (7744) with two pair, Eights and Deuces
Seat 8: mazie119 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Angel4Now folded before Flop (didn't bet)

here with these stack sizes you have to push all in preflop and hope he calls. again, you have AK and less than 30bb. there is no room for a flop once he reraised you and you put in a huge portion of your stack.

if you chose to play it like this then you can do the Stop-n-go

so when someone reraises you and puts in a big part of his stack that you know he is not folding to a shove, what you can do is call his reraise and then shove on any flop no matter what happens. I prefer shoving all in preflop though with AK here. there is so much money in the pot here as well that even if you knew he had a pocket pair, it's still profitable

[Mr.moneyhugg]

lost heaps to AK mainly against 44 or JJ hate both those hands anyway gl on felts

[KMCWA]

Hey Money,
AK is a good drawing hand and worth a push preflop. No more than 3x big blind. Post flop you have to do the math. If the flop comes up rags I would re-evaluate the strategy and most likely let it go to any decent size bet at me. Odds go down dramatically post flop particularly if the flop shows no paint. You are, for the most part, chasing after that. I agree those pesky low or middle pairs will kill you against AK. As usual it comes down to position, outs and odds. Remember the 3 most important words in poker: Patience, patience, patience.

[AnyaJohn]

Good working....

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[Walnut Dog]

I would buy an AK. i think they are well worth it. a very solid, reliable gun .

[CaliNaughti]

A wise man once say (TJ Cloutier) if you play AK and don't flop anything, get off it. On the turn here Cali, your raise is basically a call cos ur opponent aint going anywhere. And calling w/ ocs is generally incorrect.

I agree with Kats response here 100%. I have learned alot from all these wise people! Thank you Kat.

I think this post should be reread every now and then, like a refresher course for me. Patience Patience Patience

[SavagePenguin]

PokerStars Game #21279775241: Tournament #114106066, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2008/10/17 20:22:22 ET
Table '114106066 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 5: CalifNaughti (11680 in chips)
Seat 6: Eucalypta (5440 in chips)
Seat 7: GoldThumb (3395 in chips)
Seat 8: MrMorgan2 (6170 in chips)
Seat 9: neilhawk (6315 in chips)
CalifNaughti: posts the ante 50
Eucalypta: posts the ante 50
GoldThumb: posts the ante 50
MrMorgan2: posts the ante 50
neilhawk: posts the ante 50
Eucalypta: posts small blind 300
GoldThumb: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CalifNaughti [Ac Ks]
MrMorgan2: raises 5520 to 6120 and is all-in
neilhawk: folds
CalifNaughti: folds

I like the fold.

A/K is a coin flip hand much of the time. You're a slight dog against any pair, so any call, you'd basically hoping his has A/T, A/J or A/Q.

The real value of A/K is that it's a great semi-bluff hand. You can play it hard pre-flop, and even if you are called you usually have a lot of outs and are coin flip to win by the river. Calling with A/K denies it of this power.
Let's put it this way: When opening with A/K it's the 3rd or 4th best hand you can get. When calling with A/K it's much weaker than that.

You can be aggro with it because even if called by a better hand (like T/T) you improve your have about 1/2 of the time by the river. Unfortunately you only connect with the flop about 1/3 of the time, so it's generally better to stack (vs an aggressive player) than just see a flop.

But there are a lot of other considerations. In your case, with 11k you are in the driver's seat. You are *not* desperate. You do *not* need to double up. If you fold you remain just as powerful. If you call and bust him, your strength doesn't increase all that much (according to independent chip model). All of these factors are saying "fold."

Now, if that guy was a habitual shover, I call. But if he's normal, there's just too much of a chance of walking into something like 9/9 and we just don't want to run into that sort of hand in this sort of situation.

Another thing to consider... I see you are pretty active here and assume you're fairly successful. Poker is about waiting for opportunities, then exploiting them. There's just no reason for a good player to gamble here. I have some not-so-good-at-poker friends, and I'd advise them to call in this situation. They pretty much need to win situations like this to win. But a skilled player who can exploit the situations (with their big stack) just doesn't need to gamble here.

Note: If the guy had opened or limped pre-flop instead of shoving, I shove all day long. We probably have some fold equity now, so we can chase off the smaller pairs he could be doing this with.

[Luckymonkey]

AK is a great starting hand. One of my most profitable according to Pokertracker. The big problem with AK is that you don't want a large percentage of your stack in the pot before the flop, unless you are all-in. If I have to make a call that commits 25% of my chips preflop with AK, I am usually going to push all-in instead.

If you do commit a portion of your chips pre-flop, you have to be prepared to let it go if you miss.

[BufFather]

Don't be fooled by Cali's 11k stack, she is not in that good of shape at the 300/600 blinds and 5 handed. (unless she is just trying to slip into the money)

But if winning is her goal, I think folding AK here is very weak at this level.
The guy only has about 10bb left in his stack and getting ready to take the blinds in his next hand.

antes: $250 (a round, $50x5)
blinds $900 (small and big)
total pot $1150
which gives Morgan an M of 5 (which is more like an M of 2 since he is getting hit with the blinds every 3 hands)

If he is a thinking player he should be pushing with a range that looks like this according to optimal push fold charts:
22+ A2s+ ATo+ K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s

and according to optimal call charts, Cali should be calling with this range:
77+ AJs+ AJo+

with such small stack sizes, none of the players have the luxury of sitting on their butts feeling comfortable and thinking they are making a pro play by folding AK.

That is just such a weak/scared way to play poker. The only exception is if I knew that this guy was so tight that he was only raising the top 1% of his hands.

[pifan]

AK is a great starting hand. One of my most profitable according to Pokertracker. The big problem with AK is that you don't want a large percentage of your stack in the pot before the flop, unless you are all-in. If I have to make a call that commits 25% of my chips preflop with AK, I am usually going to push all-in instead.

If you do commit a portion of your chips pre-flop, you have to be prepared to let it go if you miss.


I think you want all the chips you are willing to commit in the pot preflop with AK in the right situation you want to see all 5 cards with AK hands. If you limp and miss what do you do on the Flop,Turn ? you have a strong preflop hand if you decide to play it get as much as you are willing to commit to the hand in preflop.

If you use the see a flop and bet strategy with AK you will niss 2/3 of the time. You need to see all 5 cards so your decision for the whole hand needs to be made preflop.

Sometimes the decision to fold AK preflop is definitely correct preflop but if you enter the pot play it aggressvely.

[CaliNaughti]

I think its all situational. Wheter you want to go allin with it or limp in, i dont think its ever good to limp in with AK though. Lets say your in the blinds with 400/800 and you are going to want to raise allin to blow out the people that are coming in with Arag or JK or QJ ..even if they call you you are well ahead of them.

You have instincts when your playing right? Sometimes you just KNOW they are going to suck out on you if you play it, if your watching the table you KNOW who is running hot.